Ship It

Early decisions have cascading consequences.

Today’s subject is Mulligans. Some of you are tempted to close this browser window immediately- hold on! Give me one paragraph to convince you that mulligans are really interesting. If we use the “a series of interesting decisions” definition of a game, the mulligan decision is the first one you make while actually sitting down to play (it’s preceded only by pre-game deckbuilding choices). And that single decision can set the entire tone for a match you’re about to play, even fully determine the eventual winner. Mulligans are no joke, and knowing how to mulligan properly is one of the skill tests embedded in the hierarchy of skill.

Send Crap Hands to Davy Jones locker.

The Basic Heuristics I Use

What factors weigh into the mulligan decision? I have listed them here in order of approximate importance I happen to give them at my current skill level, although they can change slightly depending on the ID and opponent I am facing.

Corp:

1. Are there too many Agendas in hand? If yes, does it at least have a way to shuffle them away quickly?

2. Do I have at least one piece of ice that can (threaten to) stop a turn 1 Diversion or Conduit? If I don’t, how likely is to happen and how bad is it?

3. Does it have a way to generate credits or draw cards efficiently?

4. Does it have other cards I want for my game plan?

5. Is this hand still ok if I draw the worst possible card (typically an agenda) on my mandatory draw step?

Runner:

1. Can I make money and draw cards?

2. Do I see a tech card that I rate highly vs. this Corp ID?

3. Did I draw a card I never want to draw naturally (e.g. Lobisomem in contemporary Spark of Inspiration decks)?

4. Did the Corporation mulligan? If so, do I have a card in hand that can punish an atrocious mandatory keep?

Once you weigh these variables, you have to ask whether a random hand of 5 cards is likely to provide a more playable hand. In general, if the answer to question 1 (for either side) is No, I mulligan. If it’s Yes, but the answer to the other questions is a mixed bag, then it’s time to think. Another consideration is how matchup %s change your hand range: if you already know you’re facing an uphill fight, it might be worth taking a mulligan on an average hand for the chance to hit a stellar hand. There is no difference between eventually losing and losing outright (except psychological annoyance). I think doing this should be pretty rare- we’re talking about matchups with sub 30% win rate or if you just know a mediocre start doesn’t beat even their slightly below average hands.

Unlike chess, card games (thankfully) don’t have a ton of homework in the form of opening theory. We can learn “ice ice hedge fund” is fine or “always bolt the bird” but due to the unpredictable nature of hidden information games, it’s often difficult to go beyond that. Occasionally playtesting can reveal startling information: “I won 90% of the games I played with CtM when Sensei Actors Union was in my  opening hand” is one that I have heard.¹

Opening Hand Puzzles (Note: Difficulties Subjective)

#1 (Easy) – You’re playing Neurospike Azmari vs. Zahya. You opening hand is Neurospike, Seamless Launch, Wraparound, Enigma, and Degree Mill.

#2 (Easy) – You’re playing World Tree Arissana vs. Ob (unknown if MAD, but deck is not particularly huge). Your opening hand is Sure Gamble x2, World Tree, Simulchip, and AirbladeX.

#3 (Easy) – You’re playing Ashnikko vs. Issuaq. Your opening hand is Cleaver, Cleaver, Hannah, Maemi, Moshing.

#4 (Medium) – You’re playing Reg Sable vs. Reality Plus. Your opening hand is Pinhole Threading, Bravado, Revolver, Miss Bones, and Daily Casts.

 #5 (Medium) – You’re playing Nuvem vs. Lat. Your opening hand is The Basalt Spire, Winchester, Descent, Hedge Fund, Rashida.

#6 (Hard) – You’re playing Asa Group vs. World Tree Arissana. Your opening hand is Wage Workers, Wage Workers, Ablative Barrier, Luminal Transubstantiation, Holo Man.

#7 (I Can’t Even) – You’re playing QtM Esa vs. Sportsmetal. Your opening hand is Raindrops Cut Stone, Finality, Ashen Epilogue, Fermenter, Labor Rights.

“Solutions”
(not actually solutions, just how I think about these)

1.       Snap mull. Yes, you have a bunch of your combo, but you have a super dead card in Degree Mill and no way to make money vs. crim. While they are applying pressure, you’ve got a bunch of cards doing nothing for you in your hand.

2.       Snap keep. You have a ton of money and can drop your busto tutoring engine turn 1 without losing tempo. Seems good. Does my answer change if it’s Venti Latte Ob? Not really, but maybe its correct mull to Bones vs. that deck. See Jai vs AugustusCaesar for how the deck plays vs. assets.

3.       Snap mull. You don’t know if you need Cleaver and seeing two in your opening hand is hot trash. Moshing gives you the illusion (?) of being able to fix this hand, but you’re not getting anywhere near the value the card is destined for. A random 5 card hand is likely to be better than this.

4.       Likely Keep. I like seeing money and Pinhole is likely to be good in the matchup. Bones and Revolver could very well be dead cards though, so it’s not the best hand ever… just not likely to be worse than a random 5. If I know the list has Tag protection, I may consider a mulligan.

5.       Likely Keep. Don’t love having Basalt in the opener, but you’re likely to be able to push a Rashida and make a lot of money from the ID ability. Scoring Basalt as the first agenda is not horrible, unlike some other 5/3s, (i.e. the scoring pattern of this deck doesn’t strongly favor 2->2->3).

6.       I probably keep this and lose. It’s one of those hands that screams “all these cards are good” but doesn’t have much of a plan beyond “get wage workers value”.

7.       I have no idea, but probably keep. I have a few reps now with the QtM Esa deck, and my mulligan decisions have mostly been “seems good, let’s roll”. It has worked out about 66% of the time. Question for the peanut gallery: how bad is Finality click 1 vs. an open R&D here? Merely bad or atrociously bad?

Soapbox: Are FFG Mulligans Optimal for Fun Experiences?

FFG mulligans can seem pretty draconian to people coming in from other CCGs, but, like… we have Basic Action Click: Draw. You don’t just die if you don’t play a 2-drop on turn two in this game. If we had more flexible mulligans, I suspect our games would start to look incredibly same-y. Another issue is that if you start losing cards from mulls it can get weird with how that affects matchups that have a meat/net damage component.

The only place I think could maybe be different is choice is for mulls on the Corp side (asymmetric game!). Having the option to take a partial mull (keep cards you like, shuffle the rest, draw back up to 5) instead of the full mull means if you have a 2 ice 3 agenda hand, you can keep 1 early game ice and roll the bones on the rest- but then I imagine how good that would have been in the era of Keeling or something like that and maybe it’s best we don’t mess with the mulligan rules too much.

Do you like the way Mulligans work in ANR? What game do you think does mulligans well? Do you think the different Mulligan considerations for Corp and Runner would justify allowing them to mull differently? Do you have any good rules of thumb or special considerations to share? If you disagree with my answers to the opening hands above, I really want to learn your reasoning! (Particularly if you think I got the easy ones wrong) Drop a line in the comments!

Deck Highlight – Jinja Tower of Flowers

https://netrunnerdb.com/en/decklist/8f0894c5-3175-4734-992c-c3223f48a4ef

Jinja City Grid is one of the most powerful econ engines for building a giant stack of ice- the ceiling for this card is a remote server capable of taxing out even the most juiced up Shaper doom rig. It has a few problems though:

1.       If you don’t draw it relatively early it kinda sucks.

2.       Your ice placement won’t be optimal and the runner will know exactly what it is.

While this list doesn’t solve problem #1, it sort of solves problem 2 by essentially using Jinja to get free A Teia installs off of Flower Sermon (and Spin Doctor presumably). Go ahead and read it, I’ll wait right here. In fact, go read the write up, “kevinth” did a great job explaining how it all works. I absolutely love it when powerful cards the meta has unjustly forgotten about get their time to shine again. Alas, even in this Jinja list, Surveyor couldn’t find a home.

1. In retrospect, getting near-Rashida-level value every turn does seem pretty good.